Low Probability Catastrophic Events
Some of the possible events that have been covered in this book are relatively unlikely to occur in 2012, or even shortly after. A physical pole shift or a major galactic superwave event would likely be calamitous for global humanity. Fortunately, events of this magnitude are by no means any kind of certainty. The search for discovering the real message of 2012 has meant considering these apocalyptic outcomes as possibilities, but even the founder of the galactic superwave theory, La Violette, is relatively optimistic. If there is an event, he believes it is likelier to be a more minor wake-up call type of event, rather than a cataclysm.
That one of these types of major event will happen at some time in our planet's future is actually very likely, but the timescale may be vast. Super-wave events of some magnitude may happen once every 13,000 years. Magnetic pole reversals happen, at most, once in 125,000 years. A physical pole shift has probably happened only once in our planet's history, so even a generous guess would put that probability in the order of once every few hundred million years or so.
It is important not to overestimate the possible likelihood of the very worst-case scenarios. It is true that many of the theories that have been discussed in this book do speculate about a cycle of disaster that accompanies the galactic alignment of 2012, the precession of the equinoxes, or the changing of world ages. However, this may not necessarily be an abrupt, cataclysmic, world-shattering event.
Cometary Impact
One of the more likely major events with far-reaching global impact would be the possibility that the Oort cloud perturber, whatever that turns out to be, sends more comets into the inner solar system. However, a cometary impact happening in exactly 2012 is very unlikely.
According to the theory pioneered by paleontologists Raup and Sepkoski, a large event happens approximately once every 26 million years. Even if that were timed to coincide with the galactic alignment marking the end of a 26,000-year precessional cycle, the odds would still be 1,000 to one. Raup and Sepkoski calculate that we are not due for another extinction-level event for perhaps another 20 million years.
