Higher Probability Global Crisis Events
The changes in the magnetic poles of our planet combined with the incoming effects of more interstellar plasma may possibly have significant geophysical effects. One scenario that has been suggested is the possibility that the increase in these magnetic changes will lead to increased pressures on Earth's crust that may trigger a supervolcano eruption.
What is a supervolcano?
Supervolcanoes occur when magma in the earth rises into the crust from a hotspot but is unable to break through. Pressure builds in a large and growing magma pool until the crust eventually gives way. The last major supervolcano to explode was around 75,000 years ago in Lake Toba, Indonesia. It plunged Earth into a volcanic winter, in which it was estimated that more than 60 percent of the human population perished.
The relationship between the magnetic poles and Earth's volcanic activity is not well understood, but there is no clear reason to suggest that a change in the magnetic field causes volcanic eruptions. It is just as possible that volcanic eruptions cause changes in Earth's magnetic field. The most convincing argument for a supervolcano explosion happening in the near future is that the large caldera underneath Yellowstone National Park appears to be overdue for an eruption. This could be soon, but it could also still be many hundreds of years away. In any case, it is more likely than a cometary impact.
A Major Solar Event
The major disruptive event most likely to occur in 2012 is a major solar flare coinciding with the peak of the sunspot cycle. The changes in the recent behavior of the sun do suggest something major is happening. The steady growth in solar activity that has marked the last hundred or so years seems to be at an end. It may well be that a major solar eruption will precede a period of possibly 100 years or longer when the sun goes into a Maunder minimum–type period, resulting in much less solar activity and a sharp drop in global temperatures.
The Hole in the Magnetosphere
The recently discovered changes to Earth's magnetosphere by NASA's THEMIS satellite will make our planet more vulnerable to incoming solar radiation. Instead of protecting our planet, the two large cracks in the magnetosphere found by the satellite could potentially accelerate the incoming flare. The discoveries made by THEMIS show that the way the magnetosphere works is exactly the opposite of what scientists had previously believed. This means that in 2012, the magnetic fields of the sun and Earth will be aligned in such a way that as much as twenty times the amount of solar radiation will get through as would if they were antialigned.
If the 2012 solar event were of a similar scale to the Carrington event, likely consequences would include:
The shutdown of power grids worldwide
Disruption of all satellite communications
Computer hard discs and other electronic storage media may be wiped
The Internet may go offline
Widespread disruption to industry and commerce
An article in New Scientist magazine about exactly this possibility estimates that a global recovery from such an event would take between four and ten years. People who are dependent on intensive health care or who live in high-rise buildings that depend on electrically pumped water would be amongst the most vulnerable. The National Academy of Science estimates that an event like this would cost the global economy more than $3 trillion in just the first year alone. This is still not a probable event, but it is not an unlikely one, either. Therefore, it is worth being aware of and preparing for. Sensible precautions would include:
Have access to a sufficient supply of water and food for at least a couple of weeks.
Not being dependent on computer or phone communication is extremely important.
Solar powered or hand-cranked radios and flashlights are essential items.
A first aid kit, portable gas stove, and camping supplies are all useful.
A reasonable reserve of fuel for personal emergency use is important; gas pumps will not work during power outages.
Important data should be archived on DVD or CD and not just left on hard drives.
If you live in a high-rise building, have a contingency plan in case of a protracted power failure.
If you or a relative are dependent on intensive medical care, have a backup plan that doesn't rely on the electricity supply.
In the case of such an emergency, it is also very helpful to know one's neighbors and have good links to your local community.
Incremental Changes
What is more likely than any single apocalyptic event in 2012 is that 2012 will mark a major watershed moment in several very important incremental changes. In the year 2012, the fact that climate change, oil consumption, and the human population are all increasingly accelerating may become very much more obvious. That global technological society has gone into overdrive and now needs to change its course seems very likely. Major changes to our lifestyles may be required because of the impact of these incremental changes.
Survivalism Versus Community
Learning about some of the more extreme possibilities of 2012 makes it tempting to adopt a survivalist mentality and head for the hills. In How to Survive 2012, Geryl is convinced that in 2012 a pole shift will result in a mile-high tidal wave. He suggests the only survivable options are to either be more than 4,000 feet high in a mountain range in an underground bunker or to be in a special unsinkable ship. Unfortunately, this kind of preparation only suffices for this very unlikely type of global catastrophe, and even then it is no guarantee of survival. In a broad range of much more likely scenarios, isolated survivalists are actually among the worst placed to survive.
Major urban centers may be undesirable if there is a significant emergency, especially if you do not have a well-established personal network to rely upon. The best options seem to be to go somewhere you have strong community bonds and where, if larger structures do start to break down, there are sufficient local resources to provide for basic needs. Smaller communities and towns, especially ones with enough adjacent land for growing food, are ideal for this.
