If the rapid increase in manmade electromagnetic emissions is left unchecked, it seems likely there will be an increase in consequences for human health and the health of the biosphere. The combination of a number of other geophysical effects converging in 2012 may mean that this impact is compounded. These effects include:

• Weakened magnetosphere

• Solar maximum due in 2012

• Increase in interstellar plasma and cosmic rays

• Movement of the magnetic poles

One possible scenario is that at the solar maximum around 2012, a massive solar eruption on the scale of the Carrington event could pass through the weakened magnetosphere of Earth. This could massively impact our global communications systems and computer networks and dramatically accelerate the changing motion of the magnetic poles. If the magnetic flux of the flare event is of sufficient magnitude to overwhelm the ring main of Earth's magnetic field, it could theoretically produce a rapid magnetic pole shift.

The sun's recent behavior does suggest that major solar eruptions are quite likely at the next solar maximum. The Carrington event megaflare happened at the end of the 300-year-long solar shutdown of the Maunder minimum period. This was followed by more than 100 years of increased solar activity on the sun. During this period, the strength of the sun's magnetic field more than doubled. The recent decline in the sun's polar magnetic field may mark the end of that warm period.

It may be that during the shift to a colder period, the sun's behavior goes into oscillation between less and much greater activity, increasing the likelihood of megaflare events. It is also possible that a Carrington event megaflare could signal the beginning, as well as the previous ending, of one of these periods of much decreased solar activity and colder temperatures on Earth. The flare that caused the shutdown of the Canadian power grid in 1989 was rated as an X-20 event; a Carrington event flare could be more than twenty times that size. Additionally, the substantial hole in the Earth's magnetosphere detected by NASA's THEMIS probe means that our planet is much more vulnerable to incoming solar radiation than was previously realized.