Winning the Nomination
States are free to choose how they select their political candidates. Most states use primaries to elect their political candidates; a few use caucuses. Caucuses are similar to primaries, with the big difference being that voters don't select a candidate directly. Rather, they select delegates to attend the nominating convention. Caucuses tend to have lower turnouts than do primaries, but the participants are generally more knowledgeable about the issues and committed to their candidates.
The Iowa Caucus
The most important presidential caucus is the Iowa caucus, which is usually held during the first week in February of the election year and kicks off the formal nominating process. Presidential aspirants spend years organizing their Iowa campaign with hopes of making a strong showing.
Typically, candidates finishing among the top three in Iowa gain momentum heading into the New Hampshire primary, which takes place the following week. Candidates who fail to finish among the top three, or perform below expectations, usually begin to see their fundraising dry up and momentum stall.
In 1976, Jimmy Carter went from relative obscurity to presidential frontrunner after winning the Iowa caucus. Carter, who held no elected office at the time, spent months prior to the caucus living in Iowa and meeting with voters. In 1996, Texas senator Phil Gramm, one of the early Republican favorites, was forced to drop his candidacy after finishing fifth behind Bob Dole, Pat Buchanan, Lamar Alexander, and Steve Forbes in the Iowa caucus. In 1988, televangelist Pat Robertson vaulted to top-tier candidate after finishing in second place to Senator Bob Dole, and ahead of George H. W. Bush. In 2000, Senator John McCain made the wise choice of deciding not to participate at all in Iowa, knowing full well that he probably wouldn't defeat George W. Bush. He spent the extra time campaigning in New Hampshire.
The New Hampshire Primary
The primary in New Hampshire is the first in the nation, and takes place a week after the Iowa caucus. The candidates spend the week leading up to the primary traveling all over the state meeting as many voters as possible. New Hampshire voters are known for being astute and informed, and they appreciate retail politicking.
If the Iowa caucus begins the process of winnowing the field, then the New Hampshire primary concludes it. In most situations, the top two or three finishers in New Hampshire maintain enough momentum and support to continue running for president. The other finishers usually see their fundraising and organization dissipate and dissolve as their supporters begin migrating to the more viable candidates. It is said that the top three finishers have a ticket out of New Hampshire, while the rest have a ticket home.
The winner of the New Hampshire primary almost always goes on to capture the nomination. Two notable exceptions, however, are the two most recent. In 2000, Senator John McCain won New Hampshire, while in 1996 Pat Buchanan was the winner.
Because New Hampshire is such a critical contest, candidates devote hundreds of days to meeting with voters at small gatherings and events during the two-year period leading up to the primary. In no other state does this “intimate” form of campaigning take place.
Regional Primaries
After New Hampshire, the candidates who remain begin traversing the country, competing in the primaries in Arizona, Michigan, and South Carolina. Following those contests, the candidates face off in what has been dubbed “Super Tuesday” — a day when multiple primaries (mostly in the South and West) take place. The participating states devised Super Tuesday as a way to maximize their importance in the process.
Over the past decade, more and more states have begun holding their primaries earlier in the season in order to achieve greater impact on the selection process. This is known as “frontloading” the process, and has been criticized by some because it favors the candidate with the most money and best organization — not necessarily the best candidate.
It used to be that the primaries lasted well into the early summer, and the eventual nominee wasn't selected until the party convention. In the past few election cycles, however, the process has become increasingly frontloaded so that most primaries take place in early March. This means that the nominating process is over sooner, and it also means that the candidate who raised the most money prior to New Hampshire usually stands the best chance of winning. In 2002, George W. Bush was clearly the beneficiary of frontloading as John McCain couldn't overcome Bush's vast resources. In 1996, the same was true for Bob Dole, as he took advantage of the frontloaded schedule to stamp out the insurgent Pat Buchanan campaign. Frontloading doesn't allow “dark horse” or long-shot candidates enough time to build momentum.
There are three types of presidential primaries: open, closed, and blanket. Most states have closed primaries, meaning that only registered party members can vote for their nominee. Several states, including Michigan and Arizona, have open primary contests, meaning that voters can choose which primary to vote in regardless of party affiliation. Only Alaska, Washington, and Louisiana have blanket primaries, where voters can vote in all the parties' primaries.
